Qualitative analysis of varsha forecast using various inputs - A study at Flosolver

Mrudula, G and Bhagyalakshmi, K (2008) Qualitative analysis of varsha forecast using various inputs - A study at Flosolver. In: Proceedings of the International Conference on Aerospace Science and Technology (INCAST 2008-129), 26-28 Jun 2008, Bangalore, India.

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Varsha, a hydrostatic spectral general circulation model developed at Flosolver, NAL is used for forecasting the monsoon from the year 2005. Generally, significant variations are noted in NWP model forecasts, if the initial conditions are taken from different sources and also if the input parameters are slightly perturbed. The influence of perturbations in specific humidity and Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and the initial conditions from ECMWF, Reanalysis and Final Analysis data of NCEP on forecasts is studied using Varsha GCM. The results show that the initial conditions of specific humidity have a crucial role in rainfall forecasts. The persistent anomaly method applied for SST also provides a better rainfall forecast. It is also13; seen that the ECMWF data gives the better initial conditions to the model than other sources.

Item Type: Conference or Workshop Item (Paper)
Additional Information: Copyright for this article belongs to National Aerospace Laboratories
Uncontrolled Keywords: Varsha forecast;Sea surface temperature
Subjects: GEOSCIENCES > Meteorology and Climatology
Depositing User: Ms. Alphones Mary
Date Deposited: 25 Mar 2009
Last Modified: 17 Jun 2010 09:26
URI: http://nal-ir.nal.res.in/id/eprint/5032

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